Part III
Relative performance and risk
A return only means something next to a benchmark and next to the risk taken to earn it.
Against the benchmark, and at what risk
A 9% return is great in a year the market made 3%, and poor in a year it made 20%. So every portfolio gets a benchmark: an index representing what the client could have had passively. The difference is the active return, also called excess return.
Return alone isn't the whole story. Tracking error measures how far the portfolio strays from the benchmark: the volatility of the active return. The information ratio divides active return by tracking error. It answers "how much extra return did we get per unit of extra risk?"
Other risk measures you'll meet
- Volatility
- The standard deviation of returns, annualized. How bumpy the ride is, in either direction.
- Maximum drawdown
- The biggest fall from a peak to a later low. It's the number investors actually feel: "at worst, how much was I down?"
- Beta
- How much the portfolio tends to move when the benchmark moves 1%. A beta of 1.2 means it typically moves 1.2%.
- Jensen's alpha
- The return beyond what the portfolio's beta alone would have earned. It separates skill from simply taking more market risk.
- Sortino ratio
- Like Sharpe, but only counts downside volatility, since few investors complain about upside surprises.
- Up and down capture
- What share of the benchmark's rises and falls the portfolio captured. 90% up capture with 70% down capture is an attractive, defensive profile.
Skill or luck?
Set the manager's true skill and how much risk they take. Then draw new 3-year samples and see how often luck hides, or fakes, that skill.
All numbers are illustrative. The models are simplified for teaching: annual coupons, Black-Scholes options, simplified fee mechanics and no intra-period trading. Real systems add transaction-based returns, daily valuation, tax and corporate action processing, and reconciliation to the official TWR.